This forecast is based upon camera survey work that has always found major scraping to begin sometime between the new and full moons.
I have never seen scrape initiation and peak scraping beginning between the full and new moons.
There are certainly other factors that affect the breeding schedule of the deer. These include the physical health of the deer; does that have low body weights or under stress will cycle later than the healthy does.
Weather has an impact, although what generally happens during a warm winter is that the breeding occurs on schedule but activity does not take place during the day — it occurs during the night when it is more comfortable for deer in their winter coats to move around.
Flooding and hurricanes also can delay the rut because these times of severe weather put deer under much stress. Heavy daylight disturbance of the deer might also result in low daylight sightings and more movement of the deer at night.
