Three agencies agree there will be plenty of storms, but not enough to match 2020
Although subtropical storm Ana kicked things off early this year, June 1 was the official start of the 2021 hurricane season. Three major long-range forecasts agree that there will be more storm activity than usual this season. But they do not expect the record-shattering numbers of 2020.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal number of named storms, as do extended-range forecasts from the Weather Company and Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science.
Weather Company and CSU forecasts predict that there will be eight hurricanes during the 2021 season, which corresponds to NOAA’s prediction of between six and 10.
The reports disagree about how many named storms there will be this year, with CSU predicting 17, Weather Company predicting 19, and NOAA offering a range of between 13 and 20, indicating the difficulty of long-range forecasting. But there is agreement about how many major storms to expect, with all three reports predicting four hurricanes of Category 3 or higher (winds of 115 mph or greater).
Although several factors are considered by forecasters, water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are key to their predictions. Much of the Atlantic Basin’s waters are already warmer than average, particularly in the subtropics near Bermuda and off the East Coast. Many areas of the Gulf of Mexico are also warmer than usual.
Good chance of Cat 3 hurricane or bigger storm for Louisiana area
Additionally, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon will contribute to this year’s storm activity.
Of particular importance to Louisiana, the authors of the CSU forecast calculated a 44% probability that at least one category 3 or higher hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.
“Although NOAA scientists don’t expect this season to be as busy as last year, it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” said Ben Friedman, acting NOAA administrator. “The forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are well-prepared with significant upgrades to our computer models, emerging observation techniques, and the expertise to deliver the life-saving forecasts that we all depend on during this, and every, hurricane season.”
In the NOAA press release, FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell urged people to visit ready.gov and listo.gov for information about preparing for hurricanes, and to download the FEMA app to sign-up for alerts and to access preparedness content.
The Atlantic hurricane season extends from June 1 through Nov. 30.
For more information, visit NOAA predicts another active Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
