still not adding up with the models

pic of cone more west but still not adding up with half of the spaghetti models.

...hang in there Orion,it's a good profession... just that too many of'em VooDoo dance w/the maps,make-up mirrors and toupees !!!...go gett'em Nash !!!...cheers

Looks like we're probably gonna take a hit. Heading down to GI tomorrow to pull out the boats and batten down the hatches. Better safe than sorry.

All the way around , this sucks ! Not only loss of businesses , personal properties but the fish and wildlife kills !! The last thing we need is another fish kill . We were just now recovering from Katrina as far as freshwater . It wasn't quite 100% like before , but close .

Admiral if you need any help moving anything around over there holla at me . I'll be here battening down the hatches .

Ummmm when Tuesday get here you'll have better idea of where its goin Darn weather people got whole South in a Up Roar Price of everything going up now Makes No Sense

Slowing down over us :-(

Not only does the new gfs model has it going right over my fishing spots and house but its predicted to slow down only over south east la, hope its wrong.

...Thanks Pic...we have nutt'n loose but my head and a patio umbrella...just can't move as fast as I used too...the stronger wind is always on the right side and Hammond should be OK if it landfalls East of us...if that happens our strongest straight line wind should be from the NE...and the land drag on the backside of the circle a lot less...just can't handle those twisters and water...

P/S...don't forget the pets...cheer

ANYBODY KNOW WHAT KIND OF STORM SURGE THEIR EXPECTING IN GRAND ISLE CANT GET THERE TILL MONDAY NITE. WILL LEAVE TUES AM DONT WANT TO BE STUCK.

Man ! One of the models has it making landfall towards the middle of La. but brushing the mouth of the Miss. That would be worst case . Bye bye sacalait fishing ...

If that thing pushes water into lake pontchatrain for 24 hrs straight . Not good ..

Hey admiral , we don't have any pets ... Lol only rabbit dogs ! Last hurricane , I forget which one , I had 11 rabbit dogs in 3 different dog boxes . Drove them to north east Texas . Every few hours we would stop and walk them around so they would all get a chance to use the bathroom . We normally evacuate because of all the big oaks all around our house , but the dogs evacuate with us . Only have 4 dogs now so it'll be a lil easier this time .

I can tell you one thing the weather channel has no clue of whats going on. These guys make a big issue of being on tv and making a mole hill into a mountain. Just watch the storm tracter and see what they do. THey get all excited when a tornado strikes to the ground. these guys track these tornados and hope they get big. I actually heard one of these idiots say on tv that he hopes this big storm forms a tornado so they can track it.

Deerman those idiots really only go off computer scales , but this storm is huge . 800 miles across .. Once a storm this size comes in the gulf and they have a predetermined cone , it's usually pretty accurate . No matter if it scoots on to Texas it will still affect us . The best we can hope at this time is it remains a tropical storm or weakens to a milder storm than it already is .

As a meteorologist, guess its time for me to stick my neck out. Not scared to blow the forecast, it happens. I'm saying Cat 2 in Mississippi. Even if this does happen, there will still be storm surge in Louisiana and preparations are still needed.

The European model has a Mobile landfall the last two cycles. The US model has a Cocodrie landfall in a scenario similar to Gustav the last two cycles. The storm is still very minor (weak winds, no central thunderstorms) with dry air to the west and has no history of developing fast. The circulation is wide, which also makes concentrating winds a little harder.

The European model does not bogus in a vortex unlike the US models, which in theory makes the European model better for an unorganized storm

So, I'm splitting the models but leaning toward the European model track, and calling for slow development to Cat 1 hurricane.

There are many reasons this could be wrong, and a major hurricane hitting us is possible.

LSU has a storm surge forecast available at:

http://cera.cct.lsu.edu/cgi-cera-ng/cera-ng.cgi

MSU has a storm surge forecast updated twice a day at:

http://www.gri.msstate.edu/research/severeweather/

Keep in mind the surge forecasts are only as good as the track and intensity forecasts.......

Dr. Spot thanks for those storm surge links! I never seen those sites before.

both sites are new and experimental, funded by the National Science Foundation. The feedback we've received is that they've been useful. The real test is tomorrow, which unfortunately looks like a serious, prolonged storm surge event of 8-12 feet in many places.

yes prolonged is about right, and now all the spaghetti models have it right for us. Unfortunately within 48 hours they can usually put it on the spot and that spot is us